Late last year I grew a beard, part out of curiosity and part out of solidarity with the down and out. Someone called it a “recession beard” and that suited me fine. Today I shaved that beard. After three days of beautiful weather, I felt I was depriving myself of sunshine, both literally and figuratively.
In a sense, we’ve all been depriving ourselves of the sunshine that comes with optimism, talking about the recession as if it was an inexorable force, a cloud that simply couldn’t be blown away. We’ve bathed in recession-strategies, cynical proclaiming that a “crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” Enough already. As far as I’m concerned this recession is over.
That’s right, you heard it here first: The recession is over. Now go tell someone else. And encourage them to do the same. Think of this as a logarithmic round of “pay it forward.” The more we tell each other that the recession is over, the more we will start to believe it and the more we believe it the more real it will be.
Of course, I have no rational evidence to support this proclamation. In fact, rationality has nothing to do it. What we need now is seismic emotionality. What we need now is a tremor of mini-indulgences and perhaps an earthquake of irrational exuberance. Meet a friend at Starbuck’s and splurge on Venti Caramel Frapuccino with whipped cream just because. It’ll do you both good.
No, I did not suddenly take some happy pills. Consumer sentiment is the fuel that drives our economic engine. When we feel better, we spend. And up until recently, we’ve been reveling in our collective misery, and turning penuriousness into an oh-so-chic art form. Enough is enough. Everything is on sale. Buy something already. Nothing like a little retail therapy to shed this malaise.
Earlier I mentioned that I had no rational evidence that the recession is over. And that is true but there is plenty of evidence that our worst days are behind us. In April, consumer confidence actually “soared past forecasts” according to this Yahoo News article. Investor confidence is also growing as the Dow spends a couple of months over 8,000 and the world markets show significant gains. Add it all together and its time to shave those recession beards and let the sun shine in.